many of the other faculty members said gold value is one divided by t. t is trust with central banksers. when trust is low -- when trust is high, gold basically drifts along. when trust is low, then the gold price shows up. >> all right. buy that gold. thank you very much. merry christmas, ben, if i don't see you later. we're going to go out here and we're going to see a lot of volume out here in the last few seconds as options and futures go off the board for the time time in 2012 and the dow down 116. have a wonderful weekend. we'll see you on monday for christmas eve. but here is the second hour of the closing bell for this friday with maria bartiromo. and it is 4:00 on monday. welcome back to "the closing

bell." the market down today. washington is not even close to reaching a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. we had a triple digit decline today. here is how we're finishing the day on wall street. at the lows, dow was down 189 points. by the close, we came a fair amount of the way back from that sharp decline in the morning hours. volume very heavy today. that's how he saw a lot of shifting in the volume for the day. 1.2 billion shares here. nasdaq gave up that 29 points at the close and the s&p 500 down 13.25 points. five trading days left until the fiscal cliff deadline. seven days until congress is back in washington. raymond james says he's expecting the santa claus rally. jeff is with me now also dean from barclay's, peter anderson and our own rick santelli. jeff, how can this market rally when there's still so much

uncertainty out there? >> i am surprised the market held up as well as it did today, maria. it had every reason to be down four or 500 points. historically, the week after christmas it's up about 70% of the time with a little over a percent gain. and i think you're going to see that after tax selling gets over as of today. and in terms of the selling that we are seeing already, do you think it's partly because people are expecting capital gains and dividend taxes to go up regardless? >> yeah, i think that's right. there's still a chance for a solution to the fiscal cliff. washington tends to work on a last-minute basis. the fact that the republicans couldn't even get together and chose some kind of solidarity even though they knew the plan b wouldn't go through is disturbing. >> dean mackey, how do you see 2013? >> the positive thing right now sthot consumer spending was

picking up in the fourth quarter. that was the message of today's data. business spending is also picking up. the problem, though, is that the economy sill is vulnerable to the fiscal cliff. tax rates are going to jump significantly on january 1st if nothing is done quickly and that would cause, we think if it lasted, a contraction in the first quarter. >> so contraction in the first quarter. are you speccing a recession? >> we are not. we still think some deal will be reached in the next couple of weeks. and that scenario we think is going to grow 1.5% to 2 the% in the next year. but the risk of no deal is obviously rising. we still think hal happen, though. rick santelli, what r saying there in chicago? the market was down, but the volume was up big. >> maria, like i think the first guest, i would rather impressed by the fact that we're down 119 and we're done much more in the wee hours of the morning after that vote failed and the i was

as shock as all of guests were. next year, it's going to be the same. no matter how this fiscal cliff gets resolved, we would be job challenged. and i continue to think a bright spot is going to be energy. i think energy is an industry that is going to keep on giving, no matter what political turmoil we have. i don't think the politicians will be able to screw up the wonderful nature of energy and some of the new technology and in terms of treasuries, i fully suspect for at least the first half of 2013 you're going to see still historically low interest rates. >> well, we already know that. peter anderson, we think they're going to get low rates. >> not because of the fed, marie kra. i think it's because the market is smart. >> peter, is there a way to invest around those low rates? how do you make money on that? >> yes, i absolutely think so. you know, when you play out the different scenarios that can happen besides rick saying energy and treasury is low interest rates, there are still

in great stocks out there and whatever the scenarios are, if we do go off the fiscal, it's going to take some time. and during that time period, you're going to see stocks sell off. if that is one of the outcomes. and as stocks sell off, it's a great opportunity to buy your favorite stock. we are anticipating going into the beginning of 2013. >> and why is that, because of a better economic landscape? >> better economic landscape. i mean, you know that the u.s. economy is doing better. we know there will be a solution. it might take a little more time. i'm not going lore a grand bargain next week nor am i looking for the collapse of any negotiations, but i think there will always be a compromise and with a comp mooig mice comes

opportunity. >> it's amazing to me, though, that this is taking so much time. dean, do you think we've seen an impact to the economy going into 2013 as a result of anticipation and inability on the part of or r on the part of business executives to put plans in place, hire new folks because they don't know what their tax rates are going to be, they don't know what's happening in washington? has it already taken an impact? >> i think that's fair to say. we have seen capital spending be weaker than it would have been otherwise if there hadn't been these worries about the fiscal cliff. i think that the worry, though, that the economy was going to tank in the second half of the year, something like 1% that many people were expecting, that's proving not to be true. and the key reason why is that consumer spending is holding in quite well. consumers tend to not to try to forecast in advance what's going to happen. they spend acourting to their income. and income is growing solidly right now. >> would you say housing has bottomed? >> housing has bottomed.

we are seeing housing starts, rising prices are prices, that is a positive factor for the economy right now. >> and, of course, the corporate sector with so much cash on balance sheets is partly behind, jeff, your idea to put money into equity. >> yeah, i think so, maria. i think the energy independence in america is a huge theme going forward. there are other themes that are not dependent on the policy, as well. this obesity thing with my generation going into the diabetes year, the diabetes stocks, the handle diabetes, i think it's a very investable theme with long legs. >> steven, let me take it over to you. we had an expiration at the end of the day today. what did you see at the close? >> as you might expect, we saw enormous volume. it didn't move stocks that much. we stayed within the range of the day. 1422 is as clowe as they ever

got. you did see some volatility, but nothing like we saw in the overnight futures markets. you saw enormous volume. but things did stabilize. the technology stocks, the financials, those kind of names. and it's been good, like the transports and the utilities are always safe haven. they turned up a little bit, but not so bad. it was a general risk off day, but nothing like the expected coming in. >> and where do you see conviction, steven, when you're watching all the flows and committed buyers out there? where do you see the conviction day in and day out. is there any particular view, the financials? >> the transports, they have been day in and day out one of your top performers for almost a month and a half now. i guess that's part of the christmas season, but it's not usual that they are among your top three sectors and it's almost every day. >> that's a great point. i don't know if it is christmas, but maybe because of the folks like fedex and u.p.s. and these are among the busiest days.

>> well, usually with retail sales around, but it hasn't been precise this year. but you know, with the low price of oil, it's something that i've noticed here. >> gentlemen, thank you very much. appreciate your time tonight. we'll see you soon. >> let's send it over to jackie. over to you. >> afternoon, maria. that's exactly right. all three major stock indices finishing the week in the green. on the s&p 500, seagate, they made big moves on the signs that pricing hasn't materially declined in the heart of the dispatch space. and red hat and an acquisition in the cloud space, nike rising on its second quarter result. to the down side this week, electronic arts and gamestop, both declining on concerns that there will be more scrutiny on violent video games in the coming weeks and months. micron lower after a wider than expected loss on the quarter.

weaker demand and falling prices for d-ram, the final issue there. finishing in the work earlier in the week that the company hired a merchandising ex action from below. up next, find out who the winners and losers are. and then, in case you missed my interview with democratic senator ben carden yesterday, what are you going to give on, senator? to get this done? >> well, we want to balance the pros. >> we know you -- everybody is saying that over and over again. why don't you explain to our audience what that means, sir. >> first, we've agreed to $1 trillion of domestic spending cuts. that's already been done. >> that's done. we're talking about the here and now, not what's done. >> he wouldn't tell us how he plans to get a deal done. coming up, we will hear from the other side of the aisle. hopefully representative mulvaney will rise above. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused.

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let's take a look at who came out on top this week. >> it was a big day, quadruple witching. big volume. 4.6 billion shares here.

dow jones industrial average, 188 was the low. really, this is the best kind of close you could ask for, maria. bottom was about 1130. we gentry rose going into the close. we didn't have a big rally, but it wasn't a great day. right in the middle. >> by the way, the reid pelosi pressers during the day didn't hurt the markets. the last couple of weeks, we've had great leadership in things like steel stocks, transportation stocks, bank stocks. they were the decliners today. but not that dramatic, as you can see here. how about about people went to? well, it was a safe haven kind of day, not surprisingly. we saw a bond move to the upside. gold rallied today. the dollar index all rallied. these are the safe havens. you would expect them to do that today. despite the poor showing today, much of the rally is very much intact, maria. here is financials for the week.

up 3%. there's your rally. tech stocks holding up well, materials and the more defensive names, telecom and consumer staplings again were on the down side. that's a pattern that we've seen all throughout the month. for the week, take a look at the major averages here. transports have had a major week. airlines have been outstanding performers and the railroads have been down, as well. dow industrial, lagging in the s&p, maria, because names like ge and merck significantly underperformed. >> and you, as well, bob. thank you so much. fiscal cliff concerns slamming stocks through the day with just ten days remaining to make a deal and avoid tax increases and springent spending cuts. house speaker john boehner says talks will continue. republicans said they would oppose it if it came to a vote. that includes our next guest, congressman mick mulvaney, republican from south carolina joins me now from capitol hill. sir, good to have you on the program. thanks for joining us. >> thank you very much for having me.

>> if a deal is not struck by december 31st. taxes will go up on everybody. would you rather go over the cliff than go over the cliff? >> honestly, i don't think the two things are linked. if we had voted for plan b last night, no one is able to convince me it would have worked. the president said he would veto it. i don't know why we don't take those folks at their word. you think you would have seen a different outcome last night if the senate had approved what we were looking at. we were facing a symbolic vote that is more than likely to get thrown in the trash. i don't know why we would make such a vote when it doesn't fix the problem. i think we end up going over the cliff. i think the president has plan odd that for a long time. you can go back and look at the process of the negotiations from the very, very beginning and he sends a very powerful message that he would rather see taxes go up and see defense spending cut and that's why we're headed. >> come on, come on, why would the president want to go over the cliff as part of his agenda? nobody wants to go over the cliff.

we all know it's going to result in a recession. >> oh, come on now, maria. he's a left leaning democrat in the white house. used to be a democrat senator. what are we talking about with the fiscal cli? you're talking about the end of the bush era tax cuts. this is something the democrats have not liked from the very beginning. remember back when we tried to pass these ten years ago, the democrats didn't like they because they did nothing for the middle class. now we're led to believe that they're the protectors of the middle class by protecting these tax cuts? that's absurd. plus you have another portion of their party who would love to see the defense cuts go into play. now they can do it and blame somebody else. we hear what you're saying. everybody wants to think the president wants to cut a deal. go back and look at it in a detailed fashion. it is not beyond the likelihood that he wants to go over the cliff in the first place. >> congressman, you've got very informed, smart people investing. investors are watching. would you like to take this opportunity to explain to them why you and your colleagues in congress cannot agree on

anything and cannot get one of the most important pieces of legislature done because we are impacting people's jobs, because frankly, more and more americans do believe you and your colleagues are incompetent. would you like to take this opportunity to explain what's happening? >> are you assuming that plan b would have fixed things? >> no, not at all. >> sthar is that part of your question? >> i'm just wondering why we are five days away, we have five trading days left, you have a few trading days let me tell in the year. you gooit guys have had 13 months to do this, to do a thoughtful plan on spending cuts and revenue and you haven't and now we're down to the wire. so i think people are scratching their heads trying to figure out, how come i put this person in office to work for me and they're not. >> sure. two answers to the question. if you were selling your house, maria, and i knocked on your front door and said hi, i'm interested in selling your house and i'd like to offer you a dollar, you would kick me out. it would be an absurd offer. that's where the president has been in these negotiations. that's one answer to the

question. the other answer to your question is why are the republicans still intransient? keep in mind, i'm one of the more conservative members of our party. i voted to raise the debt ceiling last year, something i thought i would never do it. i did it because it was part and parcel of the cut balance. i'm not interested in taking show votes. ask me to take a tough vote and i can handle it but it better fix the problem. >> you're talking about tax increases and it doesn't make a dent in the debt and deficit. you're not really doing anything in terms of cutting the debt. you're just slowing down the growth. let me ask you what you're going to give on, sir. you have had said that you would cut defense spending. how much would you cut and what else would you give on to get a deal done by year-end? >> maria, i don't mean to dodge your question. i'm not going to negotiate with you. i'm not going to till what my position is. i think, however, that myself and other members of my party, including the right wing of our party, have shown through our

actions, always more important than our words, that we are willing to negotiate, we are willing to compromise and we're willing to take tough votes, but we're only going to do it if it fixes things. last night's bill doesn't have any spending cuts in it. it was a one-sided bill. again, i don't mean to dodge your question, but you're not the opposing party of your negotiation. >> let me ask you this, you are speaking, though, to part of the american people here on this program and they want answers. so, you know, you don't have to answer questions, but that's your prerogative. let me ask you this, though. would you vote for any deal that raises taxes? >> again, i have done things up here that i never expected that i would do. if i saw something that actually fixed the problem, and not just the fiscal cliff, this is nothing in the greater scheme of things. this is a pebble in the mountain that we're dealing with our fiscal situation, our debts and our deficits. if we actually get something that fixes it and that's on the table, i'll look at anything. >> and speaker boehner

reportedly taking heat about his leadership position. harry reid said plan b wasn't going to pass in the senate. do you trust in his ability to find a compromise? >> speaker boehner is in a difficult position. if you make the assumption that the other side doesn't want to negotiate, it's a difficult position for him to be with. but the broader point, i do not see the speaker's position as being at risk. this was not just the conservative wing of the party. the opposition to plan b last night ranged from some of the most conservative to some of the most moderate members of my party. and the support was the same way. some of the most conservative members of our caucus supported this last night. this was not a leadership issue. this was not an us versus them issue. i think last night people looked at this bill and said this is not a good bill. i don't want to vote for it. that is not a referendum on speaker boehner the. >> when we go over the fiscal cliff, because that's what i'm

expecting, how many jobs gets cut right away? what's the story on unemployment? >> i don't know the answer to your question. i've heard everywhere from 300,000 to 400,000 depending on who you talk to. but keep in mind, the unemployment numbers, you have to stop looking at them unless you take a detailed look at the number of folks that dropped out of the workforce. keep in mind, obama care comes into effect on january 1st, as well. that will have a drag on job creation. you're seeing employers pull back in anticipation of that going into fuller effect. i think it's going to be a tough couple of months, without a doubt. >> what a shame, a real shame because it's self-inflicted. congressman, good to have you on the program. thank you. >> thanks, maria. >> we will see you very soon. the turn around story of the year, bank of america is up better than 100% year-to-date. how is that for a return in 2012? up next, mending capitals anton sheri

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welcome back. there is a shot of the white house live right now. president obama is going to address the fiscal cliff tonight. he'll be making a statement. 5:00 p.m. eastern. we will bring it to you live right there at the white house. meanwhile, back on wall street,

financials among the sectors seeing a decline today because of the setbacks of the budget talks. take a look at the kbw index. it soared 30% year to day. bank of america up better than 100% for that time period. that's the stock you needed to own. that stock among my next guests, top financial picks for 2013. he's been making the case in 2012, as well. antawn schiff, thanks for joining us. >> always a pleasure, maria. >> break it down for us. what happened in 2012 that caused these stocks to do well and why do you think we'll see a repeat next year? >> well, they were so hated last year. so many of them became victims of tax issues particularly at the end of last year when bank of america literally closed down $5 a share. what happened this year is they're still hated and most people are completely surprised by that chart you put up. they're shocked going, wait a minute, how are these stocks up so much? all these things are going long

for them. quite frankly, they were so beaten down, they've put a lot of things behind them. 3u9 the mortgage settlement behind them, book values are ri rising, they're earning money. it would be a surprising statistic for most people to hear. >> but you don't think they're going to have those same issues in 2013, dodd-frank, the regulatory environment, record-low interest rates? these are all some of the issues that kept investors away from these stocks last year. >> yeah. and in spite of all those issues, the stocks are very cheap, even though they're up dramatically, they're down from where they were precrisis. and if you think about the c car, and i congratulated her on the upgrade. i agree with it. but there was a lot of money left on the table in not having owned these things all year. i think some of these banks will be able to return a lot of capital. the fed really gave them a chance to go back twice with a submission for returning

capital. so we're not going to have companies fail and i think companies like bank of america and citi are going to return capital via dividends and buybacks. you get down to the regionals, there will be a lot of capital and return on dividends. even if you have slow growth, there will be a lot of money thrown back at the shareholders, thrown back at buybacks and i think it's valuation of the stock pes >> meredith said that she thought that bank of america would quadruple as dividends. is that what you think? >> it's dividends at a very, very low basis. >> okay. >> exactly. >> but you say you're -- yep, i got it. you're right. you say your top financial picks are still a good buy even if we go over the fiscal cliff, right? why are you so optimistic on that as we face this barrier in washington. >> first of all, let me say if it was up to me, i'd lock them all in the white house and not let them leave. maybe i'd give them an open bar until they resolved it. >> right. >> quite frankly been some of this stuff is going to get resolved. if we go over the cliff, we're

not going to be over the cliff for months. will there be some hurt to gdp? absolutely because of the tax refunds, it will be delayed. it's really silly stuff that there's no compromise going on. but assuming rationale things happen here, and the market will be a vigilante, if you recall when they didn't pass t.a.r.p., we're down over 700 points. if these guys don't get in line, the market will send a strong message. i think they'll have to get in line. i hate to see that happen, but it will get resolved. once it gets resolved, hopefully we can get somewhere close to normal, people not worrying about things that they don't know. they don't know what the tax rates are. clearly europe has gone in the right trajectory. there's some things set up here for markets to behave normally again and i think that would be fabulous for those that have capital market experience, those are obviously the most vulnerable. if you go over the cliff, you stay at the cliff. some of the regional banks that are coming back, as well,

companies like regionons financial has gotten some of its credit woes behind it. they may surprise with the capital returns, as well. capital one has solid consolidators. they're now the seventh largest bank in this country. a shock to everybody, but very cheap to future earnings as long as we don't stay over the cliff for a long period of time. >> thank you so much. a former marma was indecided for insider trading. >> he was indicted today stemming from his trading of two pharmaceutical companies during the period of 2000. it's been a tough year for him, a married father of three who fainted at one point from anxiety when the fbi visited his home. but the question looming large over this case all along has

been what it means for steve cohen. the government has reportedly been trying to make a case for years. martoma is the sixth s.a.c. employee to be implicated. and yet the idea of another form he sac trader's indictment can hardly be good news for cohen, the fact that the government didn't win martoma's cooperation in building a case against cohen surely must be a relief. martoma's lawyer has said consistently that his client is nnt innocent of the charges and defense attorneys expect martoma to plead not guilty at his next court appearance. nonetheless, he could choose to flip at any time, maria, and the government, of course, is still working other angings. sac for its part is not commenting today. >> kate, let me ask you about this because so many on wall street are looking at this story closely because they want to see

if steve cohen, the founder of the firm, will be taken down. they've been circling this wagon for a long time, kate, and they continue doing that. tell us how they haven't been able to -- they haven't tape him down yet. what are you expecting? >> well, as you can imagine, maria, there's a lot of talk and a lot of informal betting for defense lawyers about what the body language means, what's next. i'm told that with every day that goes by with martoma not flipping, he's less likely to flip. the case against martoma appears to restrong. his lawyer says he's innocence. but if you read the complaint and you read the indictment today, there's a long string of evidence and it's based on a cooperating witness against martoma, a doctor who was the tipper in this case with martoma the tippee. so you take the strongest case that we've seen yet that involves steve cohen personally signing off on these trades, although we don't know what

cohen knew about the information that led to the trade. that's a big gap. you haven't seen a flip yet. you haven't seen a gap against cohen. at the same time, just in this past week, we had two convictions of two folks with sac ties who were accused of insider trading at other firms, maria. and involved in that was at least one senior person from sac, michael steinberg who could be a key figure in building a case from another direction about cohen. so there's a lot of loose ends is the up shot. >> there central is. and we'll come back to you as there is more on it. i want to show you a shot of washington. president obama will address fiscal cliff issues in about 30 minutes. we will take you there live to hear the president's comments on the fiscal cliff negotiations. meanwhile, a mafs winter storm sweeping across the country once again. up next, find out which stocks could get forgot bite and which

could benefit from this winter. coming up, break down the trade for you with "options actions. " card hassles?

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. winter strong draco shutting down flights out of on chicago. the weather channel's paul walsh joins us with the business impact here. paul, the holidays are a crucial time for many businesses. who is being impacted the most weekend? >> yeah. interestingly maria, the weather this year is largely impacting business by the weather last year. the weather last year was incredibly warm, incredibly dry. any type of weather that we have this year threatens store traffic and also demand. so the draco impact, although limbed to the chicago area, may be more significant than you would normally think because of the fact that we've got such a difficult comparison to last year's balmy winter weather. >> what about retail, are you seeing positives on that end or is this going to hurt retail? >> no, i think the timing of the storm actually is pretty good

for retail. tomorrow the weather is going to be clear for most major markets. it's the last weekend before christmas. and there is going to be plenty of availability for people to go in will be good. i think the restaurant sector may have it more difficult in december because, again, the weather was so good last year and any storm is going to shave off traffic going into the stores. so that could make it difficult. and it looks like for the balance of -- certainly the balance of this week and into next week and the balance of january, we could be in for more sort of difficult weather conditions. certainly compared to last year. >> and now you have your eye on another potential storm next week, right? >> that's right. we're looking at a storm that could be impacting the northeast, actually, the day after christmas and the day after that. the jury is out now in terms of how bad it can be, but there is certainly a possibility that we could see another storm like we saw today in the northeast and even the potential of snow. that obviously is going to have an impact on day after christmas

shop, could impact shopping card redemptions. we're watching that carefully and it could be a significant event if it pans out. >> and i guess this storm, draco, it was largely about wind. >> it was, it was, wind and travel. so that very significant impact yesterday hitting the chicago/atlanta area because of the fact it's such a key hub for the country and also was very disruptive today. but from a holiday shopping perspective, the fact that the worst of it didn't happen on the weekend and the final weekend before christmas looks clear is a real positive for retail. department stores, mass merchants, retailers across the board, it's a positive sign. and the fact that it's turned really cold is also good and it's an easy comparison for sales of seasonal items. so all in all, i think the weather, as it turns out for the rest of the holiday season is going to be a positive for

retail. this will be in the restaurant sector and qsr. >> so real quick, paul, what are you expecting? how significant is this storm tonight? >> well, we'll be seeing this storm sort of wind down over the night and so things are going to get better by the time we get into the weekend. it will be brisk, it will be cold, but it won't be bad enough to keep people from getting into the stores. and the fact that it has turned cold is going to help retailers move seasonal items which may have slowed up earlier in the month where it got really, really warm for a week or two. >> great to talk with you. thanks so much, paul. >> see you soon, maria. courtney reagan with the details on that angle. >> a pro conversation point for first day of winter. the current winter storm isn't hitting the major populations centers on the east or west coast. tomorrow could be in the running for the biggest retail sales day

of the year. foot traffic at malls is often the biggest victims. walmart, target, lowe's and hoe depot can benefit from people stocking up on salt, shreds and shovels. however, the weather has been quite mild across much of the country this winter. as a result, there's likely more sales softness than normal when it comes to things like sweaters, coats and other winter apparel this season. in this case a little snow might give a boost to retailers like the gap if there's more winter gear left over than planned, it can help move some of the sweaters coats and winter merchandise. gift cards can be redeemed instore or online. for those retailers offering merchandise and promotional items as robust as those indoor, they might be singing let it snow, let it snow, let i snow.

>> thank you so much. president obama to address fiscal cliff issues in less than 20 minutes. keep it right here. we're going to take you to the white house live to hear what the president has to say about those negotiations. up next, scott wapner's big reveal, he reveals the biggest trades of the year. spoiler alert, this one is not apple. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby,

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welcome back on. we are moments away from president obama's statement on the state of negotiations on the fiscal cliff in washington. you can see it right here live on cnbc. we'll take you there as soon as the president comes out and makes that statement. that's at 5:00 p.m. eastern. here it is now, the big reveal, the moment you've always been waiting for. scott wapner unveiling another of the year's top trades. scott, over to you. >> maria, our final best trade of the year is right to the wall we go, there it is, yahoo!. oh, what a difference a ceo with a google pedigree and a great reputation can make. since the day maria meyer was hand picked by the board and head fund manager, the stock has taken off. more importantly, it puts that scott thompson resume gate thing in the rearview mirror. and though some question whether the sharp rise is justified, there's no denying that sentiment felt bad for so long is shifting. meyer is reinvesting in key areas like brand advertising and quickly closed a near $8 billion

alibaba deal. still, most believe that the turn around is in its early stages, that it will take years to fully fix this company. but at least lately, investors seem to be willing to give meyer the benefit of the doubt. >> scott, thanks so much. now to 2013. here is brian shactman with his sports predictions for next year. >> let's start with sporting stocks. under-armor has a market capital of $5 billion. nike, almost 45. jpmorgan recently initiated ua as underweight, but the upside glossed over is the exact reason the watch the stocks. women, international and footwear, all huge opportunities and they'll start to get them going in 2013. one of the big stories at the winter meetings here in nashville, tennessee, alex rodriguez and his injured hip.

my prediction for 2013, he will not play a single game the entire season. but don't worry too much about a-rod, that $114 million he's still owed, he will get every single penny. finally, hockey. deal or no deal, the nhl is still in trouble. the major profit issue is this. 30 teams. that's four too many. pull out the ten with the lowest attendance, right? the irons are going to move to brooklyn, they're safe. dallas, colorado, they're in core markets. winnipeg, they have a small intlg so they get to stay. so we've left with five teams. get rid of four of those and you get two extra players per team and the league will be better. why it won't happen? the leagues won't let it go. and we are moments away from the president's statement on the state of negotiations in washington. he and majority leader reid are

meeting right now at the white house. you can see it right here on cnbc. as soon as they come out and the president makes a statement on the fiscal cliff negotiations, we will take you there live come up at 5:00 p.m. eastern. first, all that glitters is not gold right now. gold prices are cooling off. stay with us. customer erin swenson bought from us online today. so, i'm happy. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home? (together) she won't be happy. use ups! she can get a text alert, reroute... even reschedule her package. it's ups my choice. are you happy? i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. (together) happy. i love logistics.

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welcome back. we are moments away from president obama's statement on the state of negotiations in washington. he and majority leader reid are meeting right now in the white house, and we're going to take you there live when the president comes out to speak. you can see it right here live on cnbc. it is scheduled for 10 minutes from now in washington. meanwhile gold looking less than golden this week. the yellow metal fell 2.5% and it is now down over half of this year's gains. do traders see even more pain ahead? we find out from brian sutland, an option action contributor. what do you think about gold? do you think it's headed even lower from here? >> well, personally i have a somewhat upward biased bullishness on gold. today, a lot of activity.

the february 157 puts were very active by midday and why? basically a trader bet buying 11,000 of those puts basically expecting glg to fall down below around that $1.55 level. so big bets on the shord side. 11 thought puts out. that is shorting 1.1 million shares. okay. so big bets to the downside. but i'm taking the opposite side of this. i think we trend sideways. >> what about the fiscal cliff? what does that mean for gold? >> certainly i think gold is trading on another level outside of the fiscal cliff area here. you take a look at the euro versus the dollar. yes, the dollar is weakening and that would make you want to buy gold here. what happens, let's rewind last year here, people that hold in euros and foreign currencies were puking out of that currency buying gold. now they're reversing out of that. we've seen tremendous strength in the euro. people are unwinding their gold positions getting back into some riskier assets. >> would you rather own gold or stocks right now.

>> maria, i think that's a great question. i'm not a guy that's a full gold or go stocks. i want to put together a little mixture. looking at about a 5% or 10% allocation here. two gold, maybe sell a call against that to help protect yourself, lower your break-even to the downside. i think it's a way to hedge inflation against your portfolio. stocks are hanging good. you saw a tremendous sell-off in the s&p. it hung in there. closed somewhere off the lows from last night. i think that's very positive. we can just get a deal done here, maria, i think we're off to the races to the upside. >> what about, it really does feel that way. it feels like this market wants to go higher. >> yes. >> even though the fiscal cliff, the market obviously doesn't expect the country to go over the cliff. but what do you think if it does? what happens to the broad market? are we going to see a big sell-off? >> there's a great point. we're seeing that in the vix. that trade right behind me, it's been very active, buying some

volatility, very busy and active over the last few days. globally, there's some concern about what could happen to the market. we could get this sell-off. however it seems like we're holding strong here. i just think the compromise is going to take a little bit. it's going to take a little time for it to brew. i know we're nearing that december 31st time frame. really they have that extra time. if it goes over january 1st, i'm still not as worried. i think this market can hang in there. >> brian, thanks so much for your insight. appreciate it. jackie deangelis for a quick market flash. >> yum brands are the big more today. i want to bring it to your attention, the issue is the fact that the food and safety authorities in china were testing chicken that was supplied to cfc restaurants for excessive antibiotics there. the finding by the shanghai food and drug administration is, of course, a blow to kfc's reputation in china. they are already experiencing a lot of competition there. the update on this story is that yum has since issued a statement saying that they are cooperating with the government's review of these two poultry suppliers, and

as such they do not anticipate to see a shortage of product supply. as you can see from the chart, we were down about 4% from yum. >> all right, thank you so much. we are waiting on president obama's statement on the state of negotiations in washington. the president is meeting right now with majority leader harry reid. they're meeting now, and at 5:00 p.m. eastern we are told the president will make a statement, which we will carry live for you right here on cnbc. keep it here as we take you live to the white house with the president. coming up, my observation on what today's selling is telling us about what's happening or not happening in washington. and in just a moment we'll take you live to washington to get that statement from the president. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. use the news links breaking stories with possible breakout stocks, options with potential opportunity, futures and forex with in-depth analysis. it's an all-you-can-eat buffet for all things trading.

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president obama set to make a statement on the fiscal cliff in just a few moments. we're going to take you there live as soon as he is ready to make that statement. but first -- my observation on what today's market sell-off may be telling us. i have said from the beginning of this debate i do not exp ader end only because we continue to see the same scenes over and over again in washington. that is finger pointing, a blame game, no real compromise from either side. the markets today clearly

winning to worry. before today's action this market had held up beautifully, even in the face of all of the back and forth for one reason. investors are expecting a deal. they don't believe that lawmakers would actually send this economy into a recession. a self-inflicted economic reversal. no, they don't think that's possible yet that is exactly where we seem to be headed with nine days left after today, before the year-end haphazard tax increases and spending cuts take effect. we heard it earlier once again on this program with congressman sandy levin who blamed john boehner and the republicans. it was a similar tune yesterday from john boehner blaming the president. yesterday i heard from many of you after my interview with democratic senator ben cardiff. some of you liked it, others did not like it. thank you very much for all of your feedback. i truly appreciate it. yes, i know i was tough. but, no tougher than i've been and will be to politicians on both sides of the aisle who won't answer direct questions. who draw lines in the sand while businesses, the economy, and individuals suffer the consequences of their inaction. i'm